Anghus Houvouras asks whether the Marvel moviemaking model can be stopped…
The Avengers was a cultural milestone. A movie that rewarded comic fans and validated Kevin Feige’s strategy to bring Marvel’s most famous characters to the big screen. After the record box office opening and a positive reaction from audiences, people began to wonder how long they could keep this streak alive.
Marvel Studios’ Phase One films were always building towards The Avengers. The team up was woven into every movie. Some would argue that many of the Phase One films were nothing more than exposition heavy nonsense (I’m looking at you Cinema Sins) to set up Earth’s Mightiest Heroes for the inevitable slam dunk team up movie that would gross over a billion dollars.
After The Avengers many started using “The Avengers bump” knowing that Marvel’s Phase Two line up would all benefit at the box office. I think even the most optimistic of us didn’t realize just how big that bump would be. The bump is part of Marvel’s moviemaking model which has been brilliantly engineered and executed.
This past weekend Captain America: The Winter Soldier brought in over $90 million dollars in the U.S. and has already cleared $300 million around the world, having been playing in a number of countries for over a week.
The first Captain America was always seen as a hard sell outside the U.S. where it made just almost as much here ($176 million) as it did in every other country ($193 million). The Winter Soldier seems primed to exceed that number by as much as $200 million dollars when all is said and done.
The Avengers bump is the real deal and the ceiling still doesn’t seem to be in sight. Iron Man 3 did twice as much as Iron Man 2, crossing the billion dollar mark with $200 million to spare. Thor: The Dark World improved on the original by nearly $200 million.
Everyone in the media keeps waiting for signs of atrophy. Trust me when I tell you that all eyes are on this summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy. There are many curious parties interested to see if the Marvel brand can launch a franchise that doesn’t rely heavily on pre-established characters. Even if Guardians doesn’t turn out to be a $500 million plus worldwide hit, all Marvel has to do is wait until next year when Avengers: Age of Ultron hits theaters and recharges the entire line of franchises.
It’s an impressive model, both in terms of structure and originality. This paradigm has no peers. That may not last forever as Warner Bros. seems desperate to replicate the same successes with their stable of DC icons, and I’d expect Disney would be looking to ape this structure with Star Wars, rolling out standalone movies featuring Boba Fett and Yoda in between epic installments of the Episodes 7-9.
This past week Kevin Feige said they had plotted out the Marvel movie franchise through 2028. I thought it sounded ludicrous when i first read the article. Do they really have a road map for another fourteen years? At their current output, that’s around 30 feature films. With their level of success, it’s difficult to doubt their scope and ability to implement it effectively. Not every film Marvel has touched has turned to gold, but they have rectified past mistakes, streamlined the model, and The Winter Soldier is another win for a studio who continues one victory lap after the next.
At this point Marvel could tell me they have the next 50 years plotted out, and I’d be hard pressed to doubt them. Many websites have speculated on just what might be the proverbial kryptonite to their unstoppable cinematic Superman. Could it be certain character franchises becoming stale, or a perceived drop of quality in the movies. Will audiences become beleaguered by the steady steam of too-similar product. What happens when actors like Robert Downey Jr., Gwyneth Paltrow, Scarlett Johansson, or Chris Evans decide to exit the series and need to be replaced? How will audiences react to seeing someone else in the Iron Man armor or wielding the hammer of Thor?
The speculation over Marvel’s success streak comes from our inability to understand it, historically speaking. When Marvel started Phase One, no one knew just how successful these movies could be. Everyone expected The Avengers to be a money maker, but the ancillary earnings and escalating value of these characters in their solo films continues to defy expectations.
The success of Winter Soldier raises the stakes for Guardians of the Galaxy. The bar has been set remarkably high. The media is ready to pounce on the first Marvel film that doesn’t deliver anything other than a massive success. Even if James Gunn’s space opera delivers a decent box office performance, it will be like blood in the water. ‘Sufficient’ isn’t an adjective that people associate with Marvel. Not anymore. Not since the Avengers and it’s subsequent economic bump.
Perhaps the biggest challenge Marvel faces is perception. With so many successes strung together, any perceived failing will spawn a hundred columns considering if they’ve finally reached their apex. American media writers are prone to hyperbole There’s a ridiculous expectation of growth with every subsequent release in a series. So if Guardians ends up making less than Thor or Captain America, the sharks will begin to swarm.
Unfortunately for the naysayers, the Marvel model has many moving pieces. Any franchise that doesn’t work can be quickly shuttered in favor of another. If Ant-Man isn’t a huge hit, they can launch another second tier character in their place. If Doctor Strange doesn’t cast a spell on audiences, there’s another dozen super heroes waiting for a cinematic adaptation. The well is deep and the resources are plentiful. While nothing is invincible, Marvel Studio’ moviemaking model might be as close to a sure thing as their is in this business, I wonder if I’ll be writing a similar column in 2028 when Avengers 6 is looming on the horizon? With the Marvel Moviemaking Model, I very well could be.
Anghus Houvouras is a North Carolina based writer and filmmaker. His latest work, the novel My Career Suicide Note, is available from Amazon. Follow him on Twitter.
