Tom Beasley takes a shot at predicting the final shortlists for the Academy Awards…
The Academy will release their shortlists for the Oscars tomorrow, lighting the touchpaper on the final furlong of the awards season race. These nominations are the holy grail of the awards season calendar and being chosen will ensure the great and good of Hollywood get themselves an invitation to the glitziest night of the year.
So, with 24 hours to go before the names are revealed, it’s time to take one last go at predicting the Oscar nominations in all of the main categories. For each shortlist, I’ve divided the nominees into dead certs and probable contenders, with a couple of potential spoilers in the mix as well.
BEST PICTURE
Dead Certs
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Probable Contenders
Get Out
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
Possible Spoilers
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
Molly’s Game
It’s an odd crop of Best Picture contenders this year, with a wide open field. Outside of the two main frontrunners in Three Billboards and The Shape of Water, it could go in a number of directions. From having little chance a few weeks ago, Get Out has made itself a real contender, though it’s possible the Academy will prefer The Big Sick for its now traditional left-field choice.
PREDICTED WINNER – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST DIRECTOR
Dead Certs
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Probable Contenders
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Possible Spoilers
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Amid all of the furore over all-male shortlists this year, there’s absolutely no chance that Greta Gerwig misses out when the Academy hands out its nominations. The two frontrunners for Best Picture will, of course, be present and correct. Christopher Nolan seems like a decent pick for Dunkirk and he will almost certainly be there, but the final slot could go to either Luca Guadagnino or an off-the-wall nod for Jordan Peele. Though betting against Spielberg always seems foolish.
PREDICTED WINNER – Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
BEST ACTOR
Dead Certs
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Probable Contenders
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Possible Spoilers
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
This is a packed category and any one of its top three could clinch the prize. However, the rest of the nominees are again dependent on how strongly the Academy plumps for Get Out, compared to The Post. Perhaps the most surprising, though, is that Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated for an acting prize and he is somehow not the favourite to win.
PREDICTED WINNER – Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
BEST ACTRESS
Dead Certs
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Probable Contenders
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Possible Spoilers
Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
This is by far the strongest category at this year’s Oscars ceremony. Four of the nominees are nailed-on and the notion of the Academy not nominating Meryl Streep seems faintly ridiculous. However, if the voters are placed squarely against The Post, then Jessica Chastain could sneak her way into contention.
PREDICTED WINNER – Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Dead Certs
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Probable Contenders
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Possible Spoilers
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
Despite the divisive reaction to Sam Rockwell’s performance and character arc in Three Billboards, he’s the clear frontrunner here. The Academy could turn to Willem Dafoe, but given The Florida Project‘s absence from the race thus far, he seems certain to miss out. The final nomination could very easily go to Christopher Plummer, but the Academy may simply want to keep that film out of contention entirely.
PREDICTED WINNER – Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Dead Certs
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Probable Contenders
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Mary J Blige (Mudbound)
Potential Spoilers
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
This is a bizarre category, but one dominated by the two-horse race between Janney and Metcalf. Janney’s performance in I, Tonya is the sort of big, broad turn that the awards bodies seem intent on rewarding this year (see, Gary Oldman), so she will likely emerge victorious. The most interesting thing will be watching to see if surprise contender Tiffany Haddish nabs a nomination for her outrageous and wildly entertaining work in Girls Trip.
PREDICTED WINNER – Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dead Certs
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Probable Contenders
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer (The Post)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Potential Spoilers
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Steven Rogers (I, Tonya)
This is another category that depends almost entirely on how much the Academy warmed to both The Post and Get Out. In terms of a winner, though, this seems likely to be where Lady Bird gets its victory, assuming it doesn’t beat out Three Billboards in any of the other categories. McDonagh’s film isn’t the sort of movie that seems likely to pull off a clean sweep, so this will be where one of the other top contenders is awarded.
PREDICTED WINNER – Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Dead Certs
James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game)
Probable Contenders
Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold (Logan)
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams (Mudbound)
Potential Spoilers
Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad and Jack Thorne (Wonder)
Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg and Zack Snyder (Wonder Woman)
There’s a chance that 89-year-old James Ivory gets a legacy victory here, particularly given Call Me By Your Name‘s status as a well-respected film that’s unlikely to win elsewhere. However, the rambling and lovable The Disaster Artist feels like the winner here. The fifth nomination slot is an intriguing one, given the fact it will likely come down to a battle of 2017’s most impressive superhero movies. Will Logan or Wonder Woman emerge victorious?
PREDICTED WINNER – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist)
The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced just before 1:30pm GMT on January 23, with the Oscars ceremony set to take place on March 4.
Tom Beasley is a freelance film journalist and wrestling fan. Follow him on Twitter via @TomJBeasley for movie opinions, wrestling stuff and puns.
