Gary Collinson on the 2015 superhero box office showdown…
REVISITING LAST YEAR’S PREDICTIONS
Before we turn our attention to this year’s line-up of superhero movies, we’ll start as always by casting our eye back twelve months to last year’s predictions, as Marvel continued the build to Avengers: Age of Ultron with Captain America: The Winter Soldier as well as launching the cosmic side of the Marvel Cinematic Universe with Guardians of the Galaxy, Fox brought together its two X-Men timelines for X-Men: Days of Future Past, Sony killed the Spider-Man franchise (again) with The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
Last Year’s Prediction – “As for the biggest earner of the year, I can’t look past The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and I expect the sequel to pull in around $700 million, followed by Captain America: The Winter Soldier and X-Men: Days of Future Past with around $550 – $600 million apiece (if I had to pick between the two, I think The Winter Soldier will have the slight edge due to The Avengers Bump). And as for Guardians of the Galaxy, it’s really tough to predict… but if it reaches $400 million then I think Marvel would be happy with the returns.”
The Reality – Okay, so how wrong was I?! About as wrong as I could have been, as it turned out. Yes, despite my early prediction, James Gunn’s space opera Guardians of the Galaxy went on to become the surprise hit of the year (and the third biggest earner of 2014 behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies) with $774,176,600 around the world, leaving the other three superhero movies in its dust. Well, not quite in its dust, as they all managed to crack $700 million worldwide: X-Men: Days of Future Past ($748,121,534), Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($714,766,572) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($709,582,323).
THIS TIME AROUND
And so we come to the 2015 Superhero Showdown – or Marvel Games II, given the lack of a DC alternative for the second year running (something Warner Bros. will rectify next year with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad). After last year, I am in serious need of redeeming myself with this year’s prediction; fortunately, it’s going to be a little easier to pick a box office winner, although there are question marks about the potential performance of the other two. Let’s take it away…
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Directed by Joss Whedon
Starring Robert Downey Jr. (Iron Man), Chris Evans (Captain America), Chris Hemsworth (Thor), Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow), Mark Ruffalo (The Incredible Hulk), Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye), Don Cheadle (War Machine), Cobie Smulders (Maria Hill), Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury), Paul Bettany (JARVIS / The Vision), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Quicksilver), Elizabeth Olsen (Scarlet Witch), Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter), Idris Elba (Heimdall), Anthony Mackie (Falcon), Tom Hiddleston (Loki), James Spader (Ultron), Stellen Skarsgard (Erik Selvig), Thomas Kretschmann (Baron Strucker), Josh Brolin (Thanos), Claudia Kim (Dr. Cho), Andy Serkis (Uylsses Klaw), Henry Goodman (Dr. List), Julie Delpy (Madame B) and Linda Cardellini (Laura Barton)
Does this really need any introduction? It’s the follow-up to the third-biggest movie of all-time, the culmination (well, almost – see next entry) of Marvel’s Phase Two, and the film that will see the Marvel Cinematic Universe overtake Harry Potter to become the highest-grossing movie franchise in history. We are of course talking about Avengers: Age of Ultron…
If it wasn’t for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Joss Whedon’s second Marvel outing would undoubtedly dominate the box office charts this year. It will face some competition in May from the likes of Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland and San Andreas but really this has the potential to keep on raking in the bucks until the release of Jurassic World in mid-June. It’s going to be huge – the only question is, how huge?
Ant-Man
Directed by Peyton Reed
Starring Paul Rudd (Scott Lang), Michael Douglas (Dr. Hank Pym), Evangeline Lilly (Hope Van Dyne), Corey Stoll (Darren Cross / Yellowjacket), John Slattery (Howard Stark), Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter), Bobby Cannavale (Paxton), Michael Peña (Luis), Abby Ryder Fortson (Cassie Lang), David Dastmalchian (Kurt), Wood Harris (Gale), T.I. (Dave), Jordi Molla (Castillo), and Gregg Turkington and Martin Donovan.
Having been in development under Edgar Wright since 2006, Ant-Man finally got the green light last year, only for the fan-favourite filmmaker to vacate the director’s chair at the last minute due to creative differences with Marvel, leaving a bit of a black cloud hanging over the project as Peyton Reed stepped in as his replacement.
Of course, that shouldn’t matter much to the general moviegoing public, but Ant-Man is a property that doesn’t have much name recognition outside of comic book fandom, so it’s somewhat of a risk for Marvel. However, name recognition didn’t matter to Guardians of the Galaxy, and if this can deliver the same mix of humour and spectacle (which it certainly has the potential to do, given the cast and the concept) then it could do very well indeed – especially if the next trailer blows people away.
Ant-Man will likely enjoy a nice box office bump thanks to fellow MCU release Avengers: Age of Ultron, but it will also face some stiff competition from the likes of Trainwreck, Pan, Pixels and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation.
The Fantastic Four
Directed by Josh Trank
Starring Miles Teller (Mr. Fantastic), Kate Mara (The Invisible Woman), Michael B. Jordan (The Human Torch), Jamie Bell (The Thing), Toby Kebbell (Doctor Doom), Reg E. Cathey (Dr. Storm) and Tim Blake Neson (Harvey Elder).
The Fantastic Four get a makeover this August courtesy of 20th Century Fox and Josh Trank, director of the surprise hit found footage superpowers flick Chronicle.
In terms of the hardcore Fantastic Four fanbase, there’s not much excitement for this latest iteration of Marvel’s First Family, with much of the venom towards the project seemingly aimed at Trank’s casting choices (particularly Michael B. Jordan as The Human Torch), as well as concerns that it will present a very different take on our four heroes. Oh, and a Doctor Doom, who – on paper – sounds like a travesty in the making.
If the internet made up 100% of the audience, then this would surely bomb hard. However they don’t, and therefore it won’t. While the trailer suggests a bit of a dark, humourless tone, it’s got the Marvel brand behind it (even if it’s not part of the MCU), and in the current climate that in itself should be enough to get bums on seats. Repeat business… well that’s another question.
PREDICTIONS
I don’t think there’s anyone on the planet who wouldn’t be confident enough to stake all their worldly possessions on Avengers: Age of Ultron coming out on top at the box office in this year’s superhero showdown. It’s a foregone conclusion. But just how big will it be? Well, I’m going to say very, very big indeed, and if it doesn’t manage to dethrone Titanic as the second-highest grossing movie of all time, it’s going to push it pretty close.
While it should comfortably double the combined take of Ant-Man and The Fantastic Four, I think Avengers: Age of Ultron will ultimately fall short of Titanic’s $2.186 billion, and probably finish up with about $1.9 billion overall. Next up will be Ant-Man, with around $450-$500 million worldwide (although this could easily be in the $650 million+ range if it turns out to be heaps of fun), followed by The Fantastic Four in the region of $350-$400 million.
Now to start thinking about next year, where we’ll see Deadpool vs Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice vs Captain America: Civil War vs X-Men: Apocalypse vs Suicide Squad vs Gambit vs Doctor Strange. It’s going to be an expensive 2016, that’s for sure.
How do you think this year’s big superhero movies will fare at the box office? Let us know your predictions in the comments below…
PREVIOUS SHOWDOWNS…
2014 – Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs The Amazing Spider-Man 2 vs X-Men: Days of Future Past vs Guardians of the Galaxy
2013 – Iron Man 3 vs Man of Steel vs Kick-Ass 2 vs The Wolverine vs Thor: The Dark World
2012 – Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance vs The Avengers vs The Amazing Spider-Man vs The Dark Knight Rises
2011 – Thor vs X-Men: First Class vs Green Lantern vs Captain America: The First Avenger
2010 – Iron Man 2 vs Kick-Ass vs Jonah Hex
2009 – Watchmen vs X-Men Origins: Wolverine
Gary Collinson is a writer and lecturer from the North East of England. He is the editor-in-chief of FlickeringMyth.com and the author of Holy Franchise, Batman! Bringing the Caped Crusader to the Screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL18yMRIfoszFLSgML6ddazw180SXMvMz5&feature=player_embedded&v=pnc360pUDRI
